One of the surprises coming out of the COVID crisis is that in 2021, the birth rate increased fairly significantly, reversing 2 years of declines. according to new research from the National Bureau of Economic Research. The study shows an increase in the birth rate of about 6% relative to the pre-virus trend. It’s too soon to know if this birth rate increase ends up being just a blip or the start of a longer-term trend. Longer-term trends are very important as we consider, at a minimum, the next generation of workers and taxpayers.
This is an encouraging report. The replace rate birth rate is 2.1 children for each woman of childbearing age—and that just keeps a population stable. The US has been trending below that since 2007. We hope these are primarily births to married dad-and-mom couples since that puts these babies in the best situation to thrive.
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